Labour would win a significant majority if a general election was held now, whilst Reform wouldn’t even be one of the three largest parties, according to the latest projections.
Since Andy Burnham became prime minister, Labour have overtaken and pulled clear of Reform in the polls. What at first looked like it could just be a temporary ‘Burnham bounce’ has become much more permanent.
At the same time, Reform’s support has dipped amid controversy and chaos in the party, whilst the Tories have enjoyed a polling bump in October in the wake of their party conference.
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This has seen Reform knocked down into third in the polls, as the Conservative Party seem to be re-establishing themselves as the main electoral threat to Labour.
But whilst Labour’s polling lead is still in single figures, it seems like Reform and the Tories will knock enough lumps out of each other to hand Burnham a significant majority if an election was held now.
The latest projection from Electoral Calculus based on its poll of polls predicts that Labour would win 365 seats in a general election, giving them a majority of 80 seats.
Although this would represent a loss of 47 seats compared to their 2024 performance, it would surely be seen as a huge triumph for Labour and give Burnham an undeniable mandate for government.
The Conservatives would be the official opposition with 128 seats, which would be a seven-seat gain compared to 2024.
Most surprisingly, Reform UK wouldn’t even be the third biggest party in the House of Commons, as the Lib Dems are forecast to win 60 seats, three more than Reform.
It’s a truly remarkable fall from grace for Nigel Farage’s party, who just 12 months ago had double-digit leads in the polls and looked set to win the next general election.
If an election result like this did come to pass, we’re pretty sure Robert Jenrick would then be feeling some ‘defector’s remorse.’