Labour are predicted to win an outright majority if a general election were held now, following a polling surge for the party.
For weeks, Labour have been rising in the polls under Andy Burnham’s leadership, overtaking and then pulling away from the controversy-ridden Reform UK.
But over the last week, Labour’s polling has become even stronger following Burnham’s bold party conference speech.
Since Burnham’s speech, Labour have hit their highest levels of support in over a year and a half in polls from Opinium, YouGov and More in Common.
Survation are the latest pollsters to record a rise in support for Labour, putting the party on 30%, six points clear of Reform in second.
These have all reinforced something we’ve known for a while now – Labour are ahead of Reform, whichever way you look at it.
And now, it looks like they’ve reached a level of support that would see them secure a majority at a general election.
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The latest projection from PollCheck predicts that, if an election were held tomorrow, Labour would win 329 seats, giving them a slender majority of four.
Whilst this would be a loss of 82 seats compared to 2024, it’s the first time Labour have been predicted to win a majority since October 2024. A majority would also give Burnham a clear mandate to run on his own manifesto and could kill off the threat from Reform.
Speaking of Nigel Farage’s gang, they’re not even forecast to finish second. According to PollCheck, the Tories would remain the official opposition with 104 seats, a loss of 17, with Reform in third on 76 seats.
This highlights how fractured the right wing vote is at the moment, a factor some polling experts reckon should push Burnham to call a snap election in the spring.
The Lib Dems would drop to 65 and the SNP would see huge gains with 37 seats.