British democracy. You’ve got to love it – even if you’ve got a track record like Reform. Their miserable run in local by-elections was extended this week, with the party failing to win in six different contests. However, a town council ballot in Billericay perhaps tells the most compelling story of the lot.
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An interesting definition of ‘neck and neck’…
Reform poured some sizable resources into the Billericay East by-election, held on Thursday. There was a highly coordinated campaign, bidding to sway locals to back their candidate Denise Martin. Heading into the vote, Reform claimed that the battle was ‘neck and neck’, and likely to go down to the wire.
“The exit polls in Billericay East are neck and neck this could come down to a TINY number of votes. If protecting the Green Belt matters to you, head down to the polls and cast your vote. Denise Martin is standing on a clear pledge to protect the Green Belt and challenge the old boys club.” | Councillor Sam Journet
Billericay by-election ends in a pasting for Reform
The race between Reform and the Conservatives was a relatively tight contest during the previous election held in Billericay East, just a few months ago. The Tories came out on top, claiming 45% of the vote against the 32% registered for their right-wing rivals.
So, after throwing the kitchen sink at this election, could Reform wrestle the balance of public support back in their favour? The answer is, quite comprehensively, ‘no’. And you can forget about anything resembling a ‘neck-and-neck’ contest, either.
Conservative candidate Gavin Taylor emerged victorious, registering more than 1,500 votes. This turned out to be almost THREE TIMES more than Denise Martin received. Drill a little deeper, and the numbers tell a story that should set alarm bells ringing at Reform HQ.
The Reform vote share has dropped noticeably since May, falling from 32% down to 25%. This, despite them being only one of two parties on the ballot this time around. Conversely, the Tory vote share soared by 30% – bolstered by voters left with no other alternative.
More local election nightmares for Reform
When faced with a choice which essentially boils down to ‘Reform or Not Reform’, the electorate in this part of the UK decisively opted for the latter. Of course, one local by-election result on its own perhaps isn’t a harbinger of doom for Nigel Farage and his party. But this result is far from an anomaly.
Not only are Reform struggling to win in by-elections – council, local, or Parliamentary – but they are being squeezed from all sides. With Restore eating in to their vote from further right on the spectrum, centrist and ‘moderate’ voters are also refusing to cross the turquoise divide.
And, if these trends carry forward into a General Election, it’ll be a genuine headache for Reform.