We were starting to think that Reform didn’t care a great deal about the local council by-elections taking place across the country over the last few months. They’ve had nothing to shout about for a while, but all that changed last week, when they eked out two victories in a pair of relative strongholds.
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Reform ‘worse off’ after busy month of by-elections
Sarah Pochin, the MP elected by just six votes last year, was overjoyed with a victory on her doorstep. Zia Yusuf even went as far as to declare ‘we are so back’, when the teal rosettes claimed Worksop East in Nottinghamshire, and Beechwood & Heath in Runcorn.
However, these have only proved to be fleeting moments of joy for the party that, once upon a time, had a 12-point lead over Labour in the national polls. With that advantaged now fully evaporated, Reform are having to look elsewhere for their victories. Before this latest round, they had been starved.
Several attempts to win local contests have been thwarted by the presence of Restore Britain, competing in their first ever set of council elections. They have been accused of ‘splitting the vote’ in several wards, where their percentage share has been greater than the difference between Labour and Reform.
Local polling data aligning with national picture
In fact, over the last six weeks, Reform were on a miserable run. In the last 28 by-election races, the only two that they emerged victorious from happened last Thursday. And, not only has their momentum stalled – but there also appears to be something resembling regression.
Reform emerge as ‘only losers’ in by-election spree
In the 14 by-elections which saw seats change hands in October 2026, both the Labour and Conservatives are better off by two, after experiencing more gains than losses. The SNP and Plaid Cymru also increased their representation by one seat each, with the Lib Dems and Greens losing one and gaining one.
By contrast, Reform were the only party to see their representation shrink. Despite the two gains made in the last few days, they have lost control of five other regions since 1 October 2026 – making them an outlier among the seven most popular political outlets.
Significant results in Northumberland, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Leicestershire, and Dudley saw Reform lose direct head-to-heads against Labour. Meanwhile, voters in a ward of Robert Jenrick’s constituency opted to elect the Conservative candidate ahead of the Reform one.
Whatever you can read into these votes, they seem to be matching the mood music of the national opinion polls.