It’s been roughly 12 months since Reform hit their peak in the polls, recording up to 35% of public support last summer. However, a series of high-profile controversies – most of which involve Nigel Farage – appears to have put a significant number of people off the party.
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From double-digit leads to mid-table – Reform polling continues to sink
All the talk in 2025 was about ‘electability’. Reform have performed well in both of the most recent local elections, but their flagship council in Kent has not been short of experiencing its own setbacks – and the right-wing organisation has encountered difficulties in many of its other local authorities too.
When the chips have been down, Reform also seem to come up short. They’ve lost high-profile by-elections in Caerphilly, Gorton and Denton, and Makerfield in the last nine months – although this dry spell will almost certainly end on Thursday, when Nigel Farage faces off against a bin in Clacton.
The upcoming procession will be spun as an anti-establishment victory, and one that proves the 61-year-old is still seen as a champion of the people in these parts. But the farcical nature of this contest, in which no other major parties fielded a candidate, is indicative of the circus that surrounds Nigel.
Is ‘Farage Fatigue’ setting in?
And, week by week, opinion poll after opinion poll, it all seems to be wearing a bit thin. On Sunday, Lord Ashcroft released his latest round of polling, putting Labour on 27% – and pulling nine points clear of Reform in the process. The party also trails behind the Conservatives, who have jumped to 23%.
However, Ashcroft’s polls tend to be an outlier, and the methodology differs from other pollsters. However, Nigel and the gang may also be concerned by what several other established pollsters have been saying this week – and the ignominy of third-place may well be creeping up on Reform elsewhere.
The likes of YouGov, JL Partners, and More In Common all show that Reform – who previously held a lead of 12 points against the chasing pack within the last year – are now within five points of third. Alongside the ‘Burnham Bounce’ for Labour, the Tories have also been making incremental gains.
Polls show Reform getting closer to third place
In fact, the latter poll from More In Common puts just two percentage points between Reform and the Conservative Party incumbents of third place. So, while Nigel Farage is a dead-cert to take a victory lap in Clacton this week, voters on a national scale may well be losing their appetite for the arch-Brexiteer.