A top pollster has suggested that Andy Burnham should call a general election by early next year at the latest so he can beat Nigel Farage and push the Tories a “state of near-extinction.”
Following the polling boost Labour have received since Burnham became PM – and the polling slump from Reform – many are wondering if a snap election could be on the cards.
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Whilst Labour’s polling only sits at around the mid-20s at the moment, this could be enough to secure a significant majority thanks to the first-past-the-post system and the left potentially uniting around Burnham to block Reform and Farage.
Now, this theory has been echoed by James Johnson of JL Partners, who worked as Theresa May’s senior opinion research and strategy adviser.
Writing in the Times, Johnson said a election in the next six months or so could kill two birds with one stone for Burnham by vanquishing Farage and potentially killing off the Tory Party.
Johnson said the Lib Dems and Greens could also potentially rally behind Labour if it was a straight fight between them and Reform, something Zack Polanski has previously said he’d be open to.
“The prime minister has ruled out calling an ‘early election,” Johnson wrote.
“But I believe a combination of factors mean Andy Burnham should go for a general election this year or, at the latest, early next.”
With 30% of the vote, Johnson said Labour could “quite easily win a sizeable majority” if a left-wing alliance did come to fruition.
The polling expert pointed to Burnham’s remarkable approval rating as evidence that Green and Lib Dem voters would “rally around Burnham come a contest for the future of the country.”
He also speculated that if Burnham waited too long, he could be faced with a resurgent party should Farage leave Reform.
Johnson said: “Farage remains Reform’s best asset and if Farage goes, Reform goes with him.
“Rather than fight a resurgent Badenoch with a more united right in such a situation in 2029, Burnham would do better to use his Goldilocks moment.
“Farage is not too strong nor too weak — he is strong enough for Burnham to engineer a two-horse race but can be beaten.”
Johnson wrote that it is not unrealistic for Labour to come away from a general election with a 90-seat majority, with Reform winning more than 100 seats and the Tories potentially only in double figures for seats.
This could push the Conservatives to a “state of near-extinction,” he said, adding: “For a man built on Labour traditions, is there any stronger temptation than that?”
There is also the factor of the hard-right vote being split between Reform and Restore as the two parties continue to feud.