The Holborn and St Pancras by-election is here, with voters going to the polls in the North London seat to decide who will succeed Keir Starmer as their MP.
The vote is expected to be a two-horse race between Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski.
There’s been little seat-specific polling from Holborn and St Pancras, so the predictions for the result have largely been based on models and simulations looking at factors such as national polling.
Two final projections have been shared as voters go to the polls, with both predicting Labour wins, but by different margins.
READ NEXT: Barrister who conducted Reform inquiry after Channel 4 sting is ex-UKIP candidate
Polling aggregator and tracker PollCheck published a forecast on the eve of the by-election, predicting that Abdi-Wali would win just over 40% of the vote.
Polanski is forecast to finish in second with 35.6% , with Reform in third on 7.7% and the Conservatives in fourth.
Meanwhile, Nowcast’s model predicts a more comfortable Labour win. This projection forecasts Labour winning a marginally lower vote share of 39.7%, but being more than 10% clear of the Greens who are predicted to get 29.3% of the vote.
Reform are again forecast to finish third ahead of the Tories.
Neither of these models are specific for the by-election, but provide a good idea of what would be expected to happen.
They fit with what the bookies predict, with Labour as short as 1/12 to hold onto the seat.
When Keir Starmer won the seat in 2024, he claimed 48.9% of the vote. The Greens were in third with 10.4%, behind independent candidate Andrew Feinstein on 18.9%.
Feinstein is not standing in this by-election, with the majority of his votes from 2024 expected to move to Polanski.