Early in Monday morning England face Mexico in a game that, on paper, this feels like the end of England’s World Cup.
The hosts. The Azteca. The altitude. An unbeaten Mexico side that haven’t conceded a goal all tournament and have turned one of football’s most intimidating stadiums into a fortress, losing just two competitive matches there in the last 56 years.
England, meanwhile, have done little to convince anyone they’re about to pull off one of the great World Cup upsets. They stumbled through a favourable group, needed Harry Kane to rescue them against DR Congo, and now head into a last-16 tie carrying one particularly ominous statistic: England have never beaten a World Cup host nation.
Thomas Tuchel hasn’t exactly attempted to sugar-coat the challenge either. The England boss has admitted there is simply no way to prepare for playing at more than 2,200 metres above sea level in the space of a few days, describing the conditions as a huge disadvantage.
It all makes for fairly grim reading if you’re planning to set a 1am alarm on Monday morning.
But World Cups are built on improbable victories. And while England will start as clear underdogs, there are genuine reasons to believe this tie isn’t quite as one-sided as many are making out.
1. Bad altitude, good bench
The altitude will bite. There’s no point pretending otherwise.
England simply cannot replicate playing at more than 7,000 feet above sea level in the handful of days between matches, and Tuchel has been refreshingly honest about that reality.
So expect tired legs. Lots of them.
The difference is England possess a luxury very few international sides can match: game-changing substitutes.
Against Panama, Tuchel was able to introduce Marcus Rashford, Bukayo Saka and Ollie Watkins from the bench. That’s an embarrassment of riches. Those three would start for the overwhelming majority of nations still left in this competition.
When others are desperately trying to conserve energy, England can throw on fresh pace, fresh pressing and fresh finishing.
Mexico may have the breath. England have the depth.
If this game is still level after an hour – and many expect it to be – England’s strongest weapon might not be the players who start, but the ones who arrive when everyone else’s lungs begin to burn.
2. The altitude might accidentally fix England’s biggest problem
England’s performances so far have been strangely chaotic.
Too often they’ve tried to play an aggressive running game, with midfielders – Elliot Anderson chief among them – charging forward, stretching the team and leaving acres of space behind them.
Against stronger opposition, that’s asking for trouble.
Ironically, the altitude may force England into becoming the side they should have been all along.
Running less isn’t necessarily a weakness. It could encourage a more compact shape, shorter passing, greater patience and better protection for the defence. Rather than endless pressing, England may finally be forced to control games with positioning instead of sheer energy.
Sometimes necessity breeds tactical clarity.
If Mexico make this a slower, more measured contest, that might actually play into England’s hands.
3. Mexico have looked outstanding… but against who?
Mexico deserve enormous credit for reaching this stage without conceding.
But context matters.
Their route has hardly resembled a murderer’s row.
South Africa played much of their defeat with two men sent off. South Korea have turned out to be one of the tournament’s biggest disappointments. Czechia arrived without arguably their most influential player. Ecuador represented their toughest test, but they only emerged from what many viewed as one of the weaker groups.
That sentiment has been echoed by supporters watching the tournament unfold.
As one Reddit user put it: “As impressive as Mexico has looked so far, I’m a little hesitant to jump on the hype train since I don’t think the competition they have faced so far has been the greatest.”
The same point has been made across social media by analysts questioning whether Mexico’s defensive record has been built against attacks anywhere near England’s calibre.
None of that means Mexico aren’t excellent.
It simply means England will represent a significant step up in attacking quality from anything Javier Aguirre’s side have faced so far.
4. England finally have something to react to
England have spent the opening weeks carrying expectation.
They were supposed to comfortably beat Ghana. Supposed to dismantle DR Congo. Supposed to cruise through Panama.
Instead, every scrappy win has been treated as another crisis.
Now the narrative has completely flipped.
Almost everyone expects Mexico to progress. The headlines focus on altitude, atmosphere, history and England’s poor form. England arrive as underdogs for perhaps the first time in the tournament.
That changes the psychology completely.
England no longer have to force the game or chase an early statement. They can stay compact, frustrate the crowd and allow the pressure inside the Azteca to slowly shift towards the home side if the match remains goalless.
For the first time all tournament, England have permission to be patient.
5. The expectation has shifted
Closely linked to that is perhaps England’s greatest advantage of all: freedom.
Every group game carried the burden of obligation. Anything less than convincing victories prompted criticism.
Against Mexico, nobody expects England to dominate.
That weight has lifted.
Instead, the pressure belongs to the hosts, whose nation believes this could finally be the World Cup run they’ve waited decades to see.
The longer England keep the score level, the more nervous the stadium becomes. Every missed Mexican chance, every delayed restart and every passing minute without a breakthrough increases the tension.
If England can reach half-time still standing, belief will begin to grow in one dressing room and anxiety in the other.
The odds remain firmly stacked against Tuchel’s side.
But knockout football rarely belongs to the favourites.
Sometimes it belongs to the team with the fresher legs, the calmer heads and the stronger bench.
England may not be able to match Mexico’s lungs.
They might not have to.