Blimey. We’d say there has been a fall from grace, but that would require a very liberal use of the word ‘grace’. The Reform capitulation over the last 12 months or so has been a gradual, sustained process – but new polling from IPSOS shows just how damaging the last year has been for the party.
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From 12 points ahead to 12 points behind – Reform in moment of ‘maximum danger’
Last Autumn, IPSOS had Reform riding high at the top of the polls. They were 12 points clear of Labour, and were the preferred choice for more than one-third of voters (34%). Another top pollster had them ahead by the same margin as recently as January 2026, with BMG’s data favouring the right-wing group.
However, the chaos that has dogged Reform during their rise to prominence has chipped away at any of the goodwill they may have earned as political upstarts. As of Sunday 25 October, IPSOS’ updated figures show a complete turnaround – with Reform now TRAILING Labour by 12 points.
The new survey, taken from a sample size of more than 1,100 Brits, dumps Reform into third place with just 20% – one of their lowest polling scores since 2025. They are now being outperformed by the Conservatives, who are four points ahead on 24% and sit second to Labour on 32%.
This is also the highest percentage of support Labour have received in any opinion poll since October 2024. What’s more, the positioning of Reform in third is consistent with data released by other pollsters in the last week, with FindOutNow and More In Common both registering a Labour-Conservative top two.
What has put voters off Nigel Farage and friends?
Scandal after scandal has followed party leader Nigel Farage, who pre-emptively called a by-election in Clacton in the wake of a Parliamentary standards investigation into an undeclared £5 million donation. The findings from this probe are due to be made public soon – and may trigger another by-election.
The litany of former Tories who are front, line and centre of Reform’s promises to change the country has also served to undermine their position as an ‘anti-establishment party’, and over time, voters have been turned off by controversial policies and confusing proposals.
Luke Tryl, who is the director of the More In Common polling group, believes that Reform may have the firepower to fightback with their £72 million war chest. However, he has also labelled this as a moment of ‘maximum danger’ for the group, and suggests voters may soon rally behind the Tories again.
“This is a moment of maximum danger for Reform. You can broadly split Reform voters into two groups – true believers and those who ‘just want a right wing government’. The second are more transactional, and if the Tories start to look like the vehicle to defeat Labour, they’ll go back to them.” | Luke Tryl