It’s been coming. For weeks, Reform’s support has been dropping in the polls whilst Labour’s support has increased under Andy Burnham.
Labour overtook Reform as the poll leaders a while ago, but recently the party has found itself falling into third behind the Tories.
Whilst initially the party could dismiss individual polls as outliers, the trend has become clear – and now the crossover has happened.
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Politico’s Poll of Polls now has Reform on a polling average of 20%, one point behind the Conservatives who have seen their support increase in October.
Labour remain clear at the top, a position they have held since August, on an average of 27%.
Lower down, the Greens and Lib Dems are tied on 10% each whilst Restore Britain are on 4%.
The crossover is a significant moment for both right-wing parties, with Reform having been ahead of the Tories since January 2025.
It highlights the remarkable polling collapse Reform have experienced in recent months.
As recently as June, Farage’s gang were 10 points clear of the Tories and seemed well set to be the biggest right wing party in parliament after the next general election.
But controversy and chaos has embroiled Reform since the summer, whilst the Conservatives have experienced something of a mini-resurgence under Kemi Badenoch, particularly following their party conference in October.
A few months ago, Reform would have had hopes of a winning a majority in the Commons – now it looks like they’ll do well to even be the official opposition.
The next question is – how low can they go?
As for Labour, after 18 months of seeing Reform as their main political threat, the party may have shift its focus back to the Conservatives in a return to more traditional two-party politics.